{"product_id":"expert-political-judgment-canadian-edition-0691175977","title":"Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition","description":"\u003ch2\u003eWhy Expert Judgement Matters\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn an era of complex geopolitical decisions, understanding the limits of expert prediction has never been more critical. Philip E. Tetlock's groundbreaking research, updated in this new edition, reveals that many experts are no more accurate than random chance. This finding carries profound implications for how we evaluate advice from pundits, analysts, and advisers—especially in Canada, where public policy often relies on expert testimony.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eWhat This Book Uncovers\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eExpert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?\u003c\/em\u003e is a cornerstone of social psychology and political science. Tetlock meticulously documents the accuracy of expert forecasts over decades, demonstrating that cognitive biases and overconfidence frequently undermine predictions. The book provides a rigorous framework for assessing judgment, making it a vital resource for anyone who depends on expertise.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eWho Should Read This Book?\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis work is essential for psychologists, political scientists, economists, and decision-makers. It is also accessible to general readers curious about the psychology of forecasting. Canadians interested in how expert opinions shape public policy will find particular value. Some familiarity with statistics enriches the experience, but the clear writing ensures broad accessibility.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eA Place in Social Psychology\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eBuilding on the heuristics and biases research of Kahneman and Tversky, Tetlock extends these insights into real-world forecasting. The book has influenced intelligence analysis and business strategy, emphasizing the importance of intellectual humility and diverse viewpoints. For Canadian students and professionals, it offers a vital perspective on evidence-based decision-making.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eFrequently Asked Questions\u003c\/h2\u003e\u003ch3\u003eWhat is the main question addressed?\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe core question—how good is expert political judgment, and how can we know?—is answered through empirical evidence and methodological rigor.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch3\u003eWhat's new in this edition?\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003eA reflective preface updates the book's impact and reviews subsequent forecasting research, ensuring relevance for today's readers.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003ch3\u003eIs it suitable for non-academic readers?\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003cp\u003eYes. While scholarly, the book is written for a wide audience and has been embraced by practitioners and the public alike.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Philip E. Tetlock","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48338097668334,"sku":null,"price":65.64,"currency_code":"CAD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0816\/1158\/7822\/files\/61TxBb8P8KL._SL1360.jpg?v=1784299981","url":"https:\/\/vitamin4ca.com\/products\/expert-political-judgment-canadian-edition-0691175977","provider":"vitamin4ca","version":"1.0","type":"link"}